The mass of debate, broadcast and written material offering advice and analysis about the outcome of what appears to be one of the closest fought elections for many years is pointless. There is a much clearer reason why the incumbent First Lord of the Treasury cannot retain his position. It has nothing to do with slick television performances, it is not written in the runes, it cannot be accorded to moats, duck houses, second houses or travelling first class. It is the Law of Seconds.
The Law of Seconds states that anyone who has been second in command of an administration and is then promoted to the premier position will never succeed. It is most clearly demonstrated in the sporting world.
Clive Woodward and Andy Robinson took the England rugby team to unsurpassed heights of success in 2003, winning the World Cup in Australia. In all aspects of the job, beside him on the touchline – Andy was deputy to Clive. He had access to all the inside information, he participated in the decisions, he had seen Woodward’s remarkable and divisively different coaching setup at close quarters. When Woodward resigned before the start of the 2004-05 season, Robinson was named as the acting coach and then confirmed as the England head coach. Surely this was just what was needed? Continuity at the highest level, with a man who knew the squad intimately and understood just how much hard work was needed to win a world cup. Robinson won just nine of his twenty two matches in charge. After two test defeats against South Africa in the Autumn of 2006, he resigned, citing lack of support from the RFU management board, something that his predecessor also defined as the reason for his rather more spontaneous departure. Under Robinson’s administration, England slipped to seventh in the IRB rankings and they lost eight of the last 9 matches, one of the worst runs in their playing history.
Sven Goran Eriksson was seen as the saviour of English football. The passion that had sustained Kevin Keegan at Newcastle had not been repeatable at national level and England were desperate for someone who appeared to be less tactically naïve. A remarkably average performance as a player in the lower Swedish leagues had been translated by Eriksson into a successful managerial career in the Swedish, Portuguese and Italian leagues. On leaving Lazio, he controversially became the first foreign manager of the England team. He swiftly turned around England’s bid for qualification for the 2002 World Cup and will forever remain firmly in the hearts of England fans as the man at the helm when England beat Germany 5-1 in Munich. Eriksson saw them through two world cups and Euro 2004. But by 2006 he was making as many headlines on the front of the tabloids as he was on the back. He was duped into thinking that an Arab Sheikh wanted him to manage Aston Villa in a News of the World sting, had an affair with former TV-am weather girl and fellow Swede Ulrika Jonsson as well as his secretary at the FA Faria Alam. It was time for a change and after a protracted and drawn out process during which the FA flirted with Luiz Felipe Scolari, Sam Allardyce, and Martin O’Neill to name but a few, the job was given to Steve McClaren – Eriksson’s deputy.
Eriksson’s record on the field was sadly blighted by his subsequent cartoon like personal life – but there was no doubt that McClaren would have observed a man who despite his personal failings, knew what was required to get a National team to perform. McClaren took over in 2006, choosing former England manager Terry Venables as his assistant. After the comedic appointment process, the papers nicknamed him “Second Choice Steve”. McClaren immediately hired Max Clifford to manage the media and you don’t involve Max unless you’re expecting a bumpy ride. He dropped the experienced players such as Beckham and Campbell and allowed the team to be on first name terms with him and the coaching staff. Between October 2006 and March 2007, England scored just one goal in five matches. A poor win against footballing minnows Andorra resulted in McClaren walking out of the press conference after two minutes stating “Gentlemen, if you want to write whatever you want to write, you can write it because that is all I am going to say to you.” England were then fourth in the qualification group for Euro 2008. Despite recalling Beckham – England’s fate was taken out of their hands after losing to Russia. A final loss against Croatia in November 2007 meant that England did not qualify for a major tournament for the first time in 14 years and a nation turned to vilifying McClaren. The shortest tenure of any England manager to date, McClaren was perhaps the most criticised manager by the press, even eclipsing Graham Taylor by some accounts. After protecting himself from the rain in that final match he was dubbed “The Wally with the Brolly” by The Daily Mail. Enough said.
We can turn to a third sport for our final Law of Seconds example. Despite Duncan Fletcher’s Ashes series win that united the Nation to celebrate – even though many celebrating had little idea of the rules of the game – he had come under pressure when the Ashes were returned to Australia after a lacklustre England display in 2006 and a subsequent poor performance in the World Cup. Peter Moores coaching success at County level took Sussex from the 2nd division in 2000 to winning the premier title in 2003, the first time in their history that they had ever won the Championship. The ECB, recognising these skills took Moores under their wing and appointed him as an England A coach. Moores established himself as a more than capable replacement for Rod Marsh as the director of the ECB’s academy in 2005 and when Duncan Fletcher’s reign ended in 2007, it came as no surprise that a man already so involved with the England Cricket setup should be appointed in his place.
While it could be argued that Matthew Maynard wore the official title of deputy to Fletcher, it is generally agreed that the more valuable and prestigious job involves heading up the ECB academy. The point was proven when Moores was handed the job of England coach without so much as a formal recruitment process. It was clear to the committee that Moores spoke their language and was the man for the job.
Moores initial selections were bold, bringing in Matt Prior and Ryan Sidebottom for a tour of the West Indies. But despite his knowledge of the new talent that he had helped rise to the top, it wasn’t enough to repeat his success with Sussex. England lost their first home test series in six years against India and were then beaten by Sri Lanka. Another series loss to South Africa at home and the cracks were becoming clear. This wasn’t just a coaching problem, it was also personal. Moores rarely saw eye to eye with rising star Kevin Pietersen, and when Pietersen was appointed captain in 2008, the relationship became unsustainable. Emergency meetings were held and rumour was rife. Pietersen added fuel to the flames of Moores demise by refusing to deny anything the newspapers suggested. The ECB had no choice but to remove him as coach on the 7th January 2009 and in an unexpected double whammy, Pietersen resigned as captain at the same time. By June the team was a far happier place for Moores’ absence. His nemesis and former captain announced that “The team wasn't happy, things weren't right, and England cricket was going nowhere, but I believe in the last six months the team has made big progress before a huge, huge series against Australia. I'm very happy, and everyone's happy.”
The Law of Seconds can strike at any time regardless of previous track record or experience. It heeds not prestige, industry or activity. The facts point the way ahead for those that are unelected, but simply chosen to succeed as if their predecessor’s brilliance will rub off on them. Whether it is a desire to prove their own skills and ability, in contrast to those that they have watched so closely and advised alongside, it is impossible to say. The unanswered question remains, that if they thought that their team was being run so badly that they should do it differently when they came to power, why did they sit in silence on the touchline?
As a voter, don’t peruse manifestos or ponder over gold sold at a loss, ruined pensions or illegal wars, simply look at the position of a man who sat at his leader’s right hand side throughout his tenure, champing at the bit to be given his turn. He was handed the reins in a transfer of power without recourse to those that he represents. He is therefore beholden to the Law of Seconds. In such a position, it would be an unwise man who failed to book a removals firm for May7th.
©Jon Briggs 2010
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